Sat, Dec 3, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 219 | 18 | 00 | 339 |
| TBL | 011 | 111 | 210 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18TORMitch MarnerSHAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 7:40TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 16:50TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:51TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:34TBLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 11:55TORMitch MarnerPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:33TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:52TORMac Hollowell: Holding2 min
- P1 10:30TBLIan Cole: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:58TBLBrandon Hagel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:05TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 4:52TORWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P2 17:10TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:10TORMichael Bunting: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:10TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48TORZachary Aston-Reese: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:48TBLNick Perbix: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:04TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:51TORTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:37TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Kampf5:11
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Robertson8:24
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Holmberg4:07
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:00
xG 0.68–0.95 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl12:52
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Sandin11:41
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Mete – Hollowell7:26
xG 0.18–1.18 (14%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Paul7:17
xG 0.53–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare2:37
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Cirelli – Colton2:58
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Maroon – Namestnikov – Cirelli3:35
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak12:06
xG 1.09–0.81 (57%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Cole – Sergachev2:32
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Perbix4:27
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).