Thu, Dec 8, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 14 | 115 | 017 | 236 |
| TBL | 211 | 08 | 314 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ian Cole, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 2:53TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 10:51NSHMark JankowskiSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 12:36NSHAlexandre CarrierAssists: Filip Forsberg, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 2:14TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 7:10TBLNick PaulAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:40TBLBrandon HagelSHAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brian Elliott · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:26NSHNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:25NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:39TBLPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:10TBLCal Foote: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:08TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Niederreiter – Forsberg5:19
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Smith4:59
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot4:51
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Jankowski2:28
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier12:51
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro13:56
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Josi – Gross19:49
xG 0.66–0.97 (41%)attempts 11–29goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPoint – Cirelli – Hagel6:15
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Maroon – Colton5:56
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul3:48
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Maroon – Cirelli – Colton2:25
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak13:17
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Hedman – Perbix14:54
xG 1.06–1.00 (51%)attempts 27–20goals 1–1
- Sergachev – Foote11:18
xG 0.10–0.06 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).