Sat, Dec 10, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 16 | 010 | 125 |
| TBL | 119 | 08 | 311 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Cal Foote · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:02FLAZac DalpeAssists: Josh Mahura, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 3:03TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 7:22TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Cal Foote, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 16:45TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:33FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:04FLARyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:07TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:36FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:58TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:33TBLIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:11TBLRoss Colton: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:22FLAColin White: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Luostarinen9:05
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Cousins – White8:06
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk6:46
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Tierney – Lomberg5:13
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling2:36
xG 0.54–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling8:09
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour9:38
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Paul11:10
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Maroon – Cirelli – Colton9:18
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare9:04
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:14
xG 0.68–0.78 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak11:07
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Sergachev – Foote14:41
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Hedman – Perbix10:43
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).