Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 111 | 38 | 628 |
| DET | 212 | 16 | 014 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Elmer Soderblom · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:47OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:56DETAdam ErneAssists: Jake Walman, Pius Suter · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 18:42OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 1:40OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 12:14DETFilip HronekPPAssists: David Perron, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 8:14OTTClaude GirouxPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 12:48OTTTyler MotteSHAssists: Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 16:49OTTAustin WatsonENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.42 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:13OTTDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P1 17:53DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:54DETDylan Larkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:26DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:47OTTMark Kastelic: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:34OTTErik Brannstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:48DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:27OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:02DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:41OTTNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P3 16:43OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Motte – Kastelic5:50
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Brassard – Tkachuk7:36
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto9:13
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 1–2
- Chartier – Gambrell – Kelly6:00
xG 0.06–0.59 (9%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev10:59
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Chabot2:05
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson9:07
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Erne – Suter6:13
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Suter2:55
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Larkin – Raymond6:06
xG 0.08–0.07 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Veleno – Soderblom8:38
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle10:52
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Walman – Hronek8:55
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Seider8:36
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).