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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 6, Detroit Red Wings 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:17Shot by Motte, saved by Husso
  3. P1 2:32Goal by Veleno (Kubalik, Soderblom)+18 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kubalik, Walman, Hronek, Veleno, Soderblom · OTT Hamonic, DeBrincat, Zaitsev, Batherson, Pinto

  4. P1 5:21Shot by Hronek, saved by Talbot
  5. P1 7:21Shot by Gambrell, saved by Husso
  6. P1 9:13Brassard: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Perron, Chiarot, Rasmussen, Veleno, Soderblom · OTT Giroux, Brassard, Chabot, Zaitsev, Tkachuk

  7. P1 10:40Shot by Walman, saved by Talbot5v4
  8. P1 10:44Shot by Perron, saved by Talbot5v4
  9. P1 10:50Shot by Perron, saved by Talbot5v4
  10. P1 11:16Shot by Kubalik, saved by Talbot
  11. P1 11:17Shot by Copp, saved by Talbot
  12. P1 11:26Shot by Chabot, saved by Husso
  13. P1 12:47Goal by Batherson (DeBrincat, Pinto)+18 pts WP

    On ice: DET Perron, Maatta, Oesterle, Rasmussen, Berggren · OTT DeBrincat, Brannstrom, Batherson, Pinto, Sanderson

  14. P1 13:48Shot by Seider, saved by Talbot
  15. P1 14:38Shot by Suter, saved by Talbot
  16. P1 14:43Shot by Sundqvist, saved by Talbot
  17. P1 14:56Goal by Erne (Walman, Suter)+19 pts WP

    On ice: DET Sundqvist, Erne, Walman, Hronek, Suter · OTT Chabot, DeBrincat, Zaitsev, Batherson, Pinto

  18. P1 17:07Shot by Chabot, saved by Husso
  19. P1 17:08Shot by Chartier, saved by Husso
  20. P1 17:53Veleno: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Sundqvist, Erne, Oesterle, Suter · OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Gambrell, Tkachuk, Sanderson

  21. P1 18:42Goal by Chabot (DeBrincat, Tkachuk)4v5+17 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Erne, Hronek, Rasmussen · OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk

  22. P1 18:54Larkin: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Maatta, Copp, Oesterle, Larkin, Raymond · OTT Brassard, Hamonic, Watson, Pinto, Sanderson

  23. P1 19:05Shot by Copp, saved by Talbot4v5
  24. P1 19:49Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Husso4v5
  25. P1 19:58Shot by Giroux, saved by Husso4v5
  26. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:26Chiarot: Interference (2 min)4v6

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Erne, Rasmussen, Seider · OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk, Pinto

  29. P2 0:53Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Husso3v5
  30. P2 1:21Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Husso4v5
  31. P2 1:36Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Husso4v5
  32. P2 1:40Goal by Batherson (Tkachuk, DeBrincat)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Maatta, Copp, Larkin, Hronek · OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk

  33. P2 2:47Kastelic: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Kubalik, Veleno, Seider, Soderblom · OTT Holden, Watson, Motte, Brannstrom, Kastelic

  34. P2 4:39Shot by Pinto, saved by Husso5v4
  35. P2 7:30Shot by Motte, saved by Husso
  36. P2 7:31Shot by Motte, saved by Husso
  37. P2 7:47Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Talbot
  38. P2 8:19Shot by Erne, saved by Talbot
  39. P2 10:32Shot by Raymond, saved by Talbot
  40. P2 10:34Brannstrom: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · OTT Giroux, Brassard, Holden, Brannstrom, Tkachuk

  41. P2 10:51Shot by Hronek, saved by Talbot5v4
  42. P2 11:46Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Perron, Kubalik, Copp, Larkin, Hronek · OTT Holden, Motte, Zaitsev, Kastelic

  43. P2 12:14Goal by Hronek (Perron, Raymond)5v3+23 pts WP

    On ice: DET Perron, Copp, Larkin, Hronek, Raymond · OTT Giroux, Holden, Zaitsev

  44. P2 12:50Shot by Perron, saved by Talbot5v4
  45. P2 15:48Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Maatta, Kubalik, Veleno, Soderblom · OTT Watson, Motte, Chabot, Zaitsev, Kastelic

  46. P2 15:57Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Husso4v5
  47. P2 16:02Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Husso4v5
  48. P2 16:22Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Husso4v5
  49. P2 16:47Shot by Chabot, saved by Husso4v5
  50. P2 19:27Brannstrom: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Perron, Chiarot, Rasmussen, Berggren, Seider · OTT Brassard, Holden, Brannstrom, Batherson, Tkachuk

  51. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 0:05Shot by Sanderson, saved by Husso5v4
  54. P3 0:20Shot by Larkin, saved by Talbot5v4
  55. P3 1:09Shot by Walman, saved by Talbot5v4
  56. P3 6:05Shot by Motte, saved by Husso
  57. P3 7:01Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Husso5v6
  58. P3 7:02Rasmussen: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Maatta, Kubalik, Oesterle, Rasmussen, Veleno · OTT Giroux, Hamonic, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk

  59. P3 8:14Goal by Giroux, unassisted4v5+32 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, Suter, Seider · OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk

  60. P3 10:00Shot by Giroux, saved by Husso
  61. P3 10:43Shot by Copp, saved by Talbot
  62. P3 11:15Shot by Chartier, saved by Husso
  63. P3 11:41Holden: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Maatta, Kubalik, Oesterle, Larkin, Soderblom · OTT Holden, Chartier, Gambrell, Brannstrom, Kelly

  64. P3 12:40Shot by Perron, saved by Talbot5v4
  65. P3 12:48Goal by Motte (Kelly)5v4+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Perron, Sundqvist, Kubalik, Larkin, Hronek · OTT Motte, Zaitsev, Brannstrom, Kelly

  66. P3 13:29Shot by Walman, saved by Talbot5v4
  67. P3 13:44Shot by Raymond, saved by Talbot
  68. P3 15:01Shot by Hronek, saved by Talbot
  69. P3 15:15Shot by Copp, saved by Talbot
  70. P3 15:49Shot by Larkin, saved by Talbot
  71. P3 15:55Shot by Perron, saved by Talbot
  72. P3 16:43Batherson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Perron, Sundqvist, Kubalik, Hronek, Rasmussen · OTT Holden, DeBrincat, Zaitsev, Batherson, Pinto

  73. P3 16:49Goal by Watson (Giroux)6v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Erne, Berggren, Seider, Raymond · OTT Giroux, Hamonic, Watson, Sanderson

  74. P3 17:41Shot by Seider, saved by Talbot5v4
  75. P3 18:34Shot by Kubalik, saved by Talbot5v4
  76. P3 19:28Shot by Soderblom, saved by Talbot
  77. P3 19:49Shot by Oesterle, saved by Talbot
  78. P3 0:00Period end
  79. P3 0:00Final