Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 25 | 217 | 011 | 14 | 537 |
| STL | 111 | 211 | 110 | 02 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08TORJustin HollAssists: Auston Matthews, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:34STLCalle RosenAssists: Logan Brown, Alexey Toropchenko · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:03TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:26TORAlexander KerfootSHAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Timothy Liljegren · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 7:39STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 9:30STLJustin FaulkPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 15:16TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 5:13STLJordan KyrouAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 4:03TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:40TORPontus Holmberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:59TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:59TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19STLNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P2 16:49STLRobert Bortuzzo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:53TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- OT 1:24STLJordan Kyrou: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews15:06
xG 1.08–0.59 (65%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf7:39
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner9:02
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Anderson – Aston-Reese – Holmberg5:18
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl15:01
xG 1.15–0.62 (65%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Brodie – Holl2:36
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Brodie – Timmins13:55
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Barbashev – Acciari6:49
xG 0.79–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas12:10
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Barbashev – Acciari – Toropchenko2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Brown – Toropchenko5:21
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola7:12
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola2:49
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Rosen11:34
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).