Wed, Dec 28, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 09 | 17 | 126 |
| TBL | 213 | 113 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:09TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 16:00TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 8:31TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Zach Bogosian, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 17:21MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Joel Edmundson, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38TBLNick Perbix: Interference2 min
- P1 12:40MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:46TBLNick Perbix: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:36TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:01TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:43TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:43MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:32TBLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:52TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 18:52MTLNick Suzuki: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:59
xG 0.39–0.84 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Evans – Richard – Pezzetta8:03
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Caufield10:27
xG 0.04–0.75 (5%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Drouin – Dach10:43
xG 0.21–1.40 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj11:25
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris2:55
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Harris – Barron12:46
xG 0.18–1.07 (15%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel14:07
xG 1.45–0.32 (82%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare7:51
xG 0.73–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Cirelli6:28
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton8:42
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Hedman13:45
xG 1.63–0.39 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Sergachev – Perbix11:44
xG 1.09–0.31 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev5:22
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).