Thu, Dec 29, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 19 | 010 | 332 |
| ARI | 12 | 19 | 412 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46ARINick BjugstadUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:02TORPontus HolmbergPPAssists: Conor Timmins, Pierre Engvall · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:33TORCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Conor Timmins, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 6:52ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 11:19TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Mark Giordano, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 4:40ARIJ.J. MoserPPAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 13:43ARIJack McBainGWGAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 17:38ARIJack McBainENAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
- P3 19:11ARIBarrett HaytonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:21ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:34ARIJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:34TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:41ARIJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:41TORDryden Hunt: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:46TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:07ARIBarrett Hayton: Holding2 min
- P2 9:07TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:41TORConor Timmins: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews14:06
xG 0.96–0.55 (64%)attempts 21–11goals 0–2
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner10:29
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf7:49
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Holmberg6:59
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Timmins13:23
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren14:43
xG 0.91–0.78 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Giordano – Holl14:32
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Carcone8:47
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – Hayton8:01
xG 0.10–0.22 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller12:09
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Stecher10:33
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Moser6:51
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).