Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 312 | 17 | 632 |
| COL | 16 | 115 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51TORMitch MarnerAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, John Tavares · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:27TORPierre EngvallAssists: David Kampf, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 17:28COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Logan O'Connor, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 0:34TORMichael BuntingPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 9:45COLDevon ToewsAssists: J.T. Compher, Denis Malgin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 15:00TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 15:24TORTJ BrodieUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 16:11TORMichael BuntingENAssists: William Nylander · Backhand, 0.79 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:59TORMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:11COLJacob MacDonald: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:08COLBen Meyers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:21COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:27COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:16TORTimothy Liljegren: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:30TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Meyers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Kampf9:13
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner9:10
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Holmberg7:09
xG 0.18–0.22 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews8:53
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren11:16
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl2:40
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Timmins10:48
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – O'Connor – Meyers2:47
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:14
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Compher – Rodrigues – Newhook3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Malgin – Meyers3:27
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews2:14
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Johnson – Girard10:54
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:23
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).