Sun, Jan 1, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 113 | 010 | 134 |
| OTT | 18 | 112 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 6:51BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:45OTTJake LucchiniPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 18:49OTTTim StützleENAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:14OTTNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:13OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:59BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson11:17
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs11:10
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt6:32
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Cozens3:52
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin14:54
xG 0.94–0.64 (59%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power4:06
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clague – Power12:48
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGambrell – Kelly – Lucchini9:24
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:27
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle12:47
xG 0.88–0.74 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic5:30
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub17:16
xG 1.28–0.40 (76%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson16:39
xG 0.90–0.64 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Zub2:15
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).