Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 16 | 110 | 12 | 529 |
| WSH | 18 | 111 | 211 | 02 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:07WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Anthony Mantha, Matt Irwin · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:29BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:50BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 16:46WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 0:55WSHNic DowdAssists: Sonny Milano, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 7:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 11:42BUFTyson JostAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 3:00BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.34 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:57WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:49BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:00WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka11:01
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs11:56
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:44
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt11:22
xG 0.04–0.56 (6%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Power2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin12:50
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Clague – Power15:57
xG 0.48–0.89 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary7:43
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Oshie – Dowd – Milano5:28
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Johansson6:27
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome6:54
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk18:26
xG 1.23–0.26 (82%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Orlov – Jensen17:29
xG 0.98–0.74 (57%)attempts 20–16goals 1–2
- Irwin – Fehérváry15:21
xG 0.28–0.91 (23%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).