Thu, Jan 12, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 19 | 29 | 427 |
| BUF | 010 | 116 | 115 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35WPGDylan SambergAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:02BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:11WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan DeMelo · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:50BUFTyson JostAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 7:19WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 19:17WPGKarson KuhlmanENAssists: Kyle Connor, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:36BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42WPGSaku Maenalanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:37WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:51WPGAdam Lowry: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:17BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:24WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:05BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:26WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Maenalanen – Kuhlman6:47
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois10:46
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby5:57
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti7:28
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg8:02
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk6:54
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk4:19
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt8:07
xG 1.01–0.26 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 2–2
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:43
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:21
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Asplund – Cozens6:53
xG 0.24–0.97 (20%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Lyubushkin6:04
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:27
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin10:22
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).