Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 37 | 18 | 04 | 00 | 419 |
| TOR | 214 | 113 | 19 | 11 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 2:38TORDryden HuntAssists: Morgan Rielly, Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:34FLAAnton LundellSHAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P1 15:10TORAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Timothy Liljegren · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P1 18:04FLAJosh MahuraAssists: Radko Gudas, Grigori Denisenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 1:41FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 19:57TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–3
- P3 5:59TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:53TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Conor Timmins, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:07FLABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P1 8:58FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:21FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47TORMitch Marner: Interference2 min
- P1 13:47FLARadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 0:05TORBobby McMann: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:53FLARyan Lomberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:08TORTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P2 16:02FLANick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:02TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:02FLAMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:34TORZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45FLARadko Gudas: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 0:34FLAGustav Forsling: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:08
xG 0.84–0.37 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Lomberg – Smith4:23
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko6:29
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell9:27
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling13:30
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Montour11:33
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Montour – Mahura2:08
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kampf – McMann4:03
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Hunt – Aston-Reese2:44
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Engvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf5:12
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Aston-Reese – Kampf2:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl12:40
xG 0.92–0.57 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren14:26
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Timmins9:33
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).