Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 210 | 110 | 324 |
| CGY | 115 | 216 | 310 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:58CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:20TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 11:08TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nick Paul, Patrick Maroon · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:18CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Elias Lindholm, Dillon Dube · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:20CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 7:40CGYDillon DubeGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 15:58TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 17:44CGYJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Milan Lucic, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–5
- P3 19:13CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 8:47CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Elbowing2 min
- P1 11:34CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34TBLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:28TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:52TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:42TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:42TBLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:28CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:18CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 15:29TBLCorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 15:29CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:29TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:29CGYDillon Dube: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:29TBLCorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:22CGYTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Paul – Colton7:10
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:08
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point4:44
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare2:52
xG 0.11–0.35 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote9:58
xG 0.72–0.32 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Cole – Cernak8:33
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Cernak – Sergachev3:45
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:28
xG 0.84–0.42 (66%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Pelletier – Duehr3:55
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube7:01
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau8:45
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar13:31
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:17
xG 1.16–0.71 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Stone – Zadorov8:34
xG 0.35–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).