Mon, Jan 23, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 110 | 010 | 233 |
| TOR | 06 | 422 | 111 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:37NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 5:07TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:18NYIAnders LeeAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:53TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Ilya Samsonov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 9:33TORCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: William Nylander, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 16:32TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 7:44TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:17NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:41NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24NYIAlexander Romanov: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:28TORJustin Holl: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:27TORTimothy Liljegren: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:27NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23TORPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Nelson9:53
xG 1.33–0.49 (73%)attempts 22–4goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Barzal – Beauvillier9:02
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Parise – Bailey – Pageau9:18
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Martin – Holmstrom – Räty6:47
xG 0.06–0.65 (8%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Romanov17:55
xG 1.97–1.10 (64%)attempts 35–19goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock11:47
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Mayfield – Pelech2:10
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander5:44
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 3–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf11:18
xG 0.85–0.81 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Aston-Reese – Holmberg – McMann9:14
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner4:03
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Rielly7:48
xG 0.75–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Timmins – Sandin12:23
xG 0.78–0.47 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Giordano – Liljegren9:10
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).