Sat, Feb 11, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 7, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 423 | 36 | 740 |
| BUF | 23 | 06 | 014 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:34BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Victor Olofsson, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:17CGYJakob PelletierAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:37CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 4:04CGYDennis GilbertGWGAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 7:39CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 1:57CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Dillon Dube, Dennis Gilbert · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 13:05CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Dillon Dube, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–2
- P3 17:11CGYDillon DubeAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:30BUFPeyton Krebs: Embellishment2 min
- P1 3:30CGYMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:39CGYBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:31BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:23CGYJakob Pelletier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:02BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:19CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:11BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:41CGYMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier10:36
xG 0.89–0.12 (88%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:41
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 3–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:41
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie8:05
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin16:34
xG 1.16–0.56 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Weegar – Zadorov13:08
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Stone – Zadorov2:10
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Cozens2:52
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:16
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson7:43
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt8:03
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin12:52
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Bryson – Power2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:19
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).