Tue, Feb 14, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 118 | 16 | 00 | 2 | 334 |
| NYI | 010 | 118 | 115 | 05 | 0 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:47NYIRyan PulockAssists: Matt Martin, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 17:32OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:41OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 7:13NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Alex DeBrincat stopped
- 2. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 5. OTT Drake Batherson scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:39NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:42OTTBrady Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:14OTTDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29NYIAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min
- P2 14:40OTTAlex DeBrincat: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:49OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:47NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:09OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 1:45OTTDrake Batherson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle3:32
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig8:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto2:21
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Joseph – Tkachuk – Stützle10:05
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Larsson9:17
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub2:52
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot3:09
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Nelson11:15
xG 0.88–0.15 (85%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Horvat – Barzal8:43
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching3:36
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Parise – Cizikas – Holmstrom3:06
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson13:42
xG 1.07–0.25 (81%)attempts 29–14goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:03
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Romanov12:28
xG 0.28–0.79 (26%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).