Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 18 | 09 | 130 |
| TOR | 016 | 314 | 211 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:42MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Matheson, Jordan Harris · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:32TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 13:20TORPierre EngvallGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 18:20TORMichael BuntingAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 3:47TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 14:53TORDavid KampfAssists: Pierre Engvall, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:04MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:11MTLDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:34MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Armia – Drouin – Dvorak10:43
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Belzile8:17
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:09
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Anderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard11:57
xG 0.53–0.94 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Harris2:07
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson6:29
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron12:13
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Acciari – Aston-Reese11:18
xG 1.16–0.36 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Kampf11:14
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews9:48
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Tavares – Marner11:42
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren14:54
xG 1.24–0.32 (80%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly17:08
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Holl – Sandin14:19
xG 1.00–0.98 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).