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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 18, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:21Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Allen
  3. P1 0:51Shot by Giordano, saved by Allen
  4. P1 1:19Shot by Matthews, saved by Allen
  5. P1 1:46Shot by Schueneman, saved by Woll
  6. P1 3:10Shot by Suzuki, saved by Woll
  7. P1 3:11Shot by Suzuki, saved by Woll
  8. P1 4:38Shot by Pitlick, saved by Woll
  9. P1 5:51Shot by Acciari, saved by Allen
  10. P1 5:57Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Allen
  11. P1 6:09Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Allen
  12. P1 7:19Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  13. P1 7:25Shot by Harris, saved by Woll
  14. P1 7:30Shot by Harris, saved by Woll
  15. P1 8:32Shot by Rielly, saved by Allen
  16. P1 10:27Shot by Sandin, saved by Allen
  17. P1 10:31Shot by Marner, saved by Allen
  18. P1 10:35Shot by Anderson, saved by Woll
  19. P1 11:32Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  20. P1 11:58Shot by Nylander, saved by Allen
  21. P1 12:02Shot by Nylander, saved by Allen
  22. P1 13:24Shot by Belzile, saved by Woll
  23. P1 14:22Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Allen
  24. P1 14:25Shot by Acciari, saved by Allen
  25. P1 15:43Shot by Matthews, saved by Allen
  26. P1 16:26Shot by Liljegren, saved by Allen
  27. P1 17:25Shot by Hoffman, saved by Woll
  28. P1 17:45Shot by Pezzetta, saved by Woll
  29. P1 18:55Shot by Suzuki, saved by Woll
  30. P1 19:08Shot by Nylander, saved by Allen
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 0:42Goal by Anderson (Matheson, Harris)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, Tavares, Rielly, Marner · MTL Matheson, Anderson, Suzuki, Harris, Harvey-Pinard

  34. P2 2:16Shot by Kampf, saved by Allen
  35. P2 3:13Shot by Acciari, saved by Allen
  36. P2 3:28Shot by Marner, saved by Allen
  37. P2 4:04Matheson: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Giordano, O'Reilly, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · MTL Matheson, Anderson, Suzuki, Harris, Harvey-Pinard

  38. P2 4:28Shot by Tavares, saved by Allen5v4
  39. P2 5:32Goal by Bunting (Matthews, Sandin)5v4+21 pts WP

    On ice: TOR O'Reilly, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren, Sandin · MTL Belzile, Harris, Harvey-Pinard, Barron

  40. P2 6:11Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Allen
  41. P2 7:12Shot by Belzile, saved by Woll
  42. P2 7:57Tavares: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, O'Reilly, Tavares, Marner, Liljegren · MTL Drouin, Dvorak, Pezzetta, Kovacevic, Harris

  43. P2 9:06Shot by Anderson, saved by Woll4v5
  44. P2 9:19Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll4v5
  45. P2 11:05Shot by Sandin, saved by Allen
  46. P2 11:11Shot by Tavares, saved by Allen
  47. P2 11:38Shot by Hoffman, saved by Woll
  48. P2 12:24Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  49. P2 13:20Goal by Engvall, unassisted+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Engvall, Liljegren, Kampf · MTL Pitlick, Pezzetta, Kovacevic, Harris, Ylonen

  50. P2 14:04Shot by Acciari, saved by Allen
  51. P2 14:05Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Allen
  52. P2 14:48Shot by Hoffman, saved by Woll
  53. P2 15:17Shot by Dadonov, saved by Woll
  54. P2 16:11Savard: Slashing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Marner · MTL Dadonov, Hoffman, Savard, Dvorak, Harris

  55. P2 16:49Shot by Nylander, saved by Allen5v4
  56. P2 18:20Goal by Bunting (Jarnkrok, O'Reilly)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR O'Reilly, Jarnkrok, Bunting, Liljegren, Sandin · MTL Savard, Anderson, Suzuki, Harris, Barron

  57. P2 19:59Shot by Liljegren, saved by Allen
  58. P2 0:00Period end
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 1:21Shot by Kovacevic, saved by Woll
  61. P3 3:23Shot by Bunting, saved by Allen
  62. P3 3:47Goal by Nylander (Matthews, Giordano)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren · MTL Armia, Drouin, Dvorak, Kovacevic, Harris

  63. P3 5:13Shot by Barron, saved by Woll
  64. P3 8:54Shot by Pitlick, saved by Woll
  65. P3 9:58Shot by Kovacevic, saved by Woll
  66. P3 10:31Shot by Harvey-Pinard, saved by Woll
  67. P3 10:34Harvey-Pinard: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Holl, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Sandin · MTL Savard, Matheson, Anderson, Suzuki, Harvey-Pinard

  68. P3 10:52Shot by Engvall, saved by Allen5v4
  69. P3 11:29Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Allen5v4
  70. P3 13:14Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  71. P3 13:24Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  72. P3 13:42Shot by Acciari, saved by Allen
  73. P3 13:51Shot by Liljegren, saved by Allen
  74. P3 14:29Shot by Kampf, saved by Allen
  75. P3 14:51Shot by Engvall, saved by Allen
  76. P3 14:53Goal by Kampf (Engvall, Sandin)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Holl, Engvall, Kampf, Sandin · MTL Dadonov, Hoffman, Savard, Dvorak, Schueneman

  77. P3 15:43Shot by Harris, saved by Woll
  78. P3 15:44Shot by Drouin, saved by Woll
  79. P3 19:02Shot by Rielly, saved by Allen
  80. P3 19:18Shot by Engvall, saved by Allen
  81. P3 0:00Period end
  82. P3 0:00Final