Sun, Feb 26, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 09 | 112 | 329 |
| PIT | 110 | 619 | 07 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:06TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 18:05TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 6:17PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Josh Archibald, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 15:28PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.32 xG2–3
- P2 16:20PITTeddy BluegerGWGAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jeff Petry · Poke, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 17:50PITJeff CarterAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 18:37PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Danton Heinen · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–6
- P2 19:55PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.03 xG2–7
- P3 7:57TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:07TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:30PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43PITJosh Archibald: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Paul – Colton10:49
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli11:43
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare9:43
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel14:03
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 12–16goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev2:11
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Hedman14:42
xG 0.77–0.50 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Fleury13:36
xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust12:37
xG 0.82–0.52 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – O'Connor7:41
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:33
xG 0.56–0.67 (46%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen10:12
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson15:54
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:45
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Joseph – Rutta14:07
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).