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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 26, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:33Shot by Zucker, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 1:38Shot by Rust, saved by Elliott
  4. P1 2:23Shot by Joseph, saved by Elliott
  5. P1 2:28Shot by Letang, saved by Elliott
  6. P1 3:20Goal by O'Connor (Pettersson, Petry)+18 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Petry, Archibald, Blueger, Pettersson, O'Connor · TBL Cole, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Hagel

  7. P1 3:38Shot by Heinen, saved by Elliott
  8. P1 5:16Shot by Colton, saved by DeSmith
  9. P1 5:39Shot by Paul, saved by DeSmith
  10. P1 11:05Shot by Zucker, saved by Elliott
  11. P1 12:17Shot by Paul, saved by DeSmith
  12. P1 12:23Shot by Hedman, saved by DeSmith
  13. P1 15:11Shot by Sergachev, saved by DeSmith
  14. P1 16:06Goal by Cirelli (Bogosian)+19 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Petry, McGinn, Pettersson, Heinen · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Bogosian, Cirelli, Sergachev

  15. P1 17:07Maroon: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Archibald, Blueger, Joseph, Rutta, O'Connor · TBL Cole, Maroon, Hedman, Paul, Colton

  16. P1 17:14Shot by Guentzel, saved by Elliott5v4
  17. P1 17:21Shot by Guentzel, saved by Elliott5v4
  18. P1 17:30Rakell: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel · TBL Cole, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  19. P1 18:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by DeSmith4v4
  20. P1 18:05Goal by Kucherov (Point, Cole)4v4+18 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Petry, Guentzel, Pettersson · TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Sergachev

  21. P1 18:54Shot by Malkin, saved by Elliott4v4
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:51Shot by Cirelli, saved by DeSmith
  25. P2 0:52Shot by Hedman, saved by DeSmith
  26. P2 1:02Shot by Stamkos, saved by DeSmith
  27. P2 3:59Shot by Guentzel, saved by Elliott
  28. P2 4:11Malkin: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Petry, Zucker, Rust, Pettersson · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Cirelli, Sergachev, Perbix

  29. P2 4:54Shot by Rust, saved by Elliott4v5
  30. P2 6:17Goal by Malkin (Archibald, Dumoulin)+20 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Dumoulin, Archibald, McGinn, Pettersson · TBL Perry, Killorn, Paul, Sergachev, Colton

  31. P2 7:11Shot by Zucker, saved by Elliott
  32. P2 7:34Shot by Joseph, saved by Elliott
  33. P2 7:40Shot by Guentzel, saved by Elliott
  34. P2 9:50Shot by Rust, saved by Elliott
  35. P2 9:56Shot by Rust, saved by Elliott
  36. P2 10:01Shot by Petry, saved by Elliott
  37. P2 12:03Shot by Cirelli, saved by DeSmith
  38. P2 12:19Shot by Stamkos, saved by DeSmith
  39. P2 13:06Shot by Perbix, saved by DeSmith
  40. P2 13:28Shot by Kucherov, saved by DeSmith
  41. P2 14:06Shot by Malkin, saved by Elliott
  42. P2 14:07Shot by Zucker, saved by Elliott
  43. P2 15:06Stamkos: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Petry, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Bogosian, Cirelli, Sergachev

  44. P2 15:28Goal by Crosby (Guentzel, Letang)5v4+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel · TBL Cole, Hedman, Paul, Bellemare

  45. P2 16:04Shot by Blueger, saved by Elliott
  46. P2 16:20Goal by Blueger (Pettersson, Petry)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Petry, Blueger, McGinn, Pettersson, Heinen · TBL Bogosian, Kucherov, Fleury, Point, Hagel

  47. P2 16:55Shot by Point, saved by DeSmith
  48. P2 16:57Shot by Point, saved by DeSmith
  49. P2 17:50Goal by Carter (Letang)+6 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson · TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Sergachev, Hagel

  50. P2 18:37Goal by Zucker (Malkin, Heinen)+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Zucker, Heinen, Joseph, Rutta · TBL Perry, Bogosian, Namestnikov, Bellemare, Fleury

  51. P2 19:37Shot by Letang, saved by Elliott
  52. P2 19:50Shot by Rakell, saved by Elliott
  53. P2 19:55Goal by Dumoulin (Crosby)+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Dumoulin, Guentzel · TBL Maroon, Paul, Sergachev, Colton, Perbix

  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:20Shot by Cole, saved by DeSmith
  57. P3 3:01Shot by Zucker, saved by Elliott
  58. P3 4:42Shot by Colton, saved by DeSmith
  59. P3 4:52Shot by Perbix, saved by DeSmith
  60. P3 5:06Shot by Rakell, saved by Elliott
  61. P3 5:50Shot by Bellemare, saved by DeSmith
  62. P3 6:43Archibald: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Petry, Archibald, Blueger, Pettersson, O'Connor · TBL Bogosian, Kucherov, Fleury, Point, Hagel

  63. P3 7:28Shot by Hagel, saved by DeSmith4v5
  64. P3 7:41Shot by Kucherov, saved by DeSmith4v5
  65. P3 7:57Goal by Point (Kucherov, Sergachev)4v50 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, McGinn, Pettersson, Rutta · TBL Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev

  66. P3 8:14Shot by Colton, saved by DeSmith
  67. P3 8:55Shot by Hedman, saved by DeSmith
  68. P3 9:23Shot by Rust, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 10:03Shot by Letang, saved by Elliott
  70. P3 10:58Shot by Blueger, saved by Elliott
  71. P3 14:14Shot by Colton, saved by DeSmith
  72. P3 14:38Shot by Petry, saved by Elliott
  73. P3 15:59Shot by Rakell, saved by Elliott
  74. P3 18:17Shot by Maroon, saved by DeSmith
  75. P3 19:30Shot by Perbix, saved by DeSmith
  76. P3 0:00Period end
  77. P3 0:00Final