Wed, Mar 1, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 06 | 111 | 228 |
| EDM | 314 | 211 | 07 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 12:15TORDavid KampfAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:53EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Klim Kostin, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 18:05EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 8:46EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Cody Ceci, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 17:12EDMKlim KostinAssists: Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 1:08TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:21TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:00EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55TORSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:07TORJustin Holl: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:07EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:11TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:34EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:16TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kerfoot – Lafferty2:58
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tavares – Nylander6:36
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Acciari – Aston-Reese5:55
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Kampf6:49
xG 0.07–0.43 (15%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodie – McCabe15:47
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Giordano – Liljegren10:02
xG 0.25–0.46 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Holl – Rielly14:18
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Ryan5:22
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Hyman – Janmark – McDavid5:11
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto9:51
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod4:12
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:04
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Kulak – Desharnais9:50
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:13
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).