Sat, Mar 4, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 010 | 214 | 335 |
| DAL | 312 | 210 | 27 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:09DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 16:03COLSamuel GirardAssists: Alex Newhook · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 17:42DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 5:25DALMason MarchmentGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 11:39DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 4:15DALWyatt JohnstonUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG1–6
- P3 11:49COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Samuel Girard, Logan O'Connor · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 16:19COLEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Alex Newhook, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 16:53DALJason RobertsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:17COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:17DALJani Hakanpää: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:17COLMikko Rantanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:42COLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:31DALJamie Benn: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 14:31COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01DALMax Domi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Malgin2:14
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen4:03
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor8:48
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Compher – Rantanen – Newhook5:10
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram10:59
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 1–2
- Makar – Byram2:33
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hunt – Byram3:57
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:28
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:47
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Seguin – Domi – Marchment10:03
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Faksa – Olofsson – Dellandrea10:10
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Heiskanen13:07
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Miller2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:33
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).