Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 19 | 19 | 426 |
| TOR | 114 | 413 | 211 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05TORNoel AcciariAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:27EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 11:24EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:33EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 12:56TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 14:49TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 15:56TORJohn TavaresAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 18:55TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 10:50TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
- P3 12:31EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 19:10TORNoel AcciariENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–7
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:55EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:20EDMConnor McDavid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:20TORAuston Matthews: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:27EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11EDMRyan McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 9:11TORMichael Bunting: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:30EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:58TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:41TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:41EDMVincent Desharnais: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:58EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:59EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:37EDMWarren Foegele: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14TORTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:52TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl3:57
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto5:57
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Shore – Ryan – McLeod3:50
xG 0.00–0.20 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Kane – Hyman – McDavid8:58
xG 0.44–0.64 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:15
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais7:37
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Kulak – Bouchard2:10
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Nylander – Lafferty2:42
xG 0.44–0.02 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews8:22
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:30
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Bunting4:44
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren2:28
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Gustafsson2:51
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl4:06
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).