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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Edmonton Oilers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.

TOR winsEDM wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:53Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner
  3. P1 0:55Kane: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Holl, Kerfoot, Matthews · EDM Kane, Hyman, Ceci, Nurse, McDavid

  4. P1 1:43Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner5v4
  5. P1 2:16Shot by Lafferty, saved by Skinner5v4
  6. P1 3:05Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Skinner
  7. P1 3:05Goal by Acciari (Aston-Reese, Kampf)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Acciari, Aston-Reese, Kampf · EDM Kane, Kulak, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, Bouchard

  8. P1 3:27Goal by Ekholm (Bouchard, Nugent-Hopkins)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Holl, Nylander, Lafferty · EDM Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, Bouchard

  9. P1 3:36Shot by Kane, saved by Murray
  10. P1 4:08Shot by McDavid, saved by Murray
  11. P1 4:58Shot by Ryan, saved by Murray
  12. P1 5:44Shot by Bjugstad, saved by Murray
  13. P1 6:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner
  14. P1 7:07Shot by Brodie, saved by Skinner
  15. P1 9:35Shot by Janmark, saved by Murray
  16. P1 11:24Goal by Kane (McDavid, Ceci)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews · EDM Kane, Hyman, Ceci, Nurse, McDavid

  17. P1 11:50Shot by Nylander, saved by Skinner
  18. P1 12:54Shot by Acciari, saved by Skinner
  19. P1 12:59Shot by McCabe, saved by Skinner
  20. P1 14:28Shot by Lafferty, saved by Skinner
  21. P1 14:29Shot by Lafferty, saved by Skinner
  22. P1 14:48Shot by Gustafsson, saved by Skinner
  23. P1 14:54Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner
  24. P1 15:13Shot by Kane, saved by Murray
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:20McDavid: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews · EDM Kane, Hyman, Ceci, Nurse, McDavid

  28. P2 0:20Matthews: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews · EDM Kane, Hyman, Ceci, Nurse, McDavid

  29. P2 2:33Goal by McDavid (Bouchard, Bjugstad)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Bjugstad, Kulak, McDavid, Desharnais, Yamamoto

  30. P2 3:48Shot by Foegele, saved by Murray
  31. P2 4:04Shot by Holl, saved by Skinner
  32. P2 4:23Shot by Holl, saved by Skinner
  33. P2 4:37Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner
  34. P2 5:27Yamamoto: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Nylander, Lafferty, Liljegren · EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Ceci, Nurse, Draisaitl, Yamamoto

  35. P2 6:24Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner5v4
  36. P2 9:11McLeod: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Ceci, Shore, Nurse, Ryan, McLeod

  37. P2 9:11Bunting: Embellishment (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Ceci, Shore, Nurse, Ryan, McLeod

  38. P2 9:29Shot by Nurse, saved by Murray4v4
  39. P2 9:48Shot by Rielly, saved by Skinner4v4
  40. P2 11:23Shot by Marner, saved by Skinner
  41. P2 12:56Goal by Marner, unassisted+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Holl, McCabe, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews · EDM Ceci, Shore, Nurse, Ryan, McLeod

  42. P2 13:15Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  43. P2 14:24Shot by Bjugstad, saved by Murray
  44. P2 14:49Goal by Nylander (Marner)+25 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · EDM Bjugstad, Kulak, Janmark, Foegele, Desharnais

  45. P2 14:54Shot by Ekholm, saved by Murray
  46. P2 15:34Shot by Brodie, saved by Skinner
  47. P2 15:46Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Murray
  48. P2 15:56Goal by Tavares (Matthews)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Holl, Matthews · EDM Kane, Ceci, Nurse, Draisaitl, Yamamoto

  49. P2 16:50Shot by Acciari, saved by Skinner
  50. P2 17:14Shot by Acciari, saved by Skinner
  51. P2 18:30Nurse: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · EDM Kane, Kulak, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid

  52. P2 18:55Goal by Tavares (Marner, Nylander)5v4+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · EDM Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins, Ceci, Janmark

  53. P2 19:32Shot by Kulak, saved by Murray
  54. P2 19:48Shot by Ekholm, saved by Murray
  55. P2 19:58Holl: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Holl, Acciari · EDM Kane, Ekholm, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard

  56. P2 0:00Period end4v6
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 0:58Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Murray4v5
  59. P3 1:40Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray4v5
  60. P3 2:32Shot by Marner, saved by Skinner
  61. P3 3:41Tavares: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Holl, McCabe, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Hyman, Kulak, Janmark, McDavid, Desharnais

  62. P3 3:41Desharnais: Cross checking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Holl, McCabe, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Hyman, Kulak, Janmark, McDavid, Desharnais

  63. P3 4:08Shot by Matthews, saved by Skinner4v4
  64. P3 4:54Shot by Ekholm, saved by Murray4v4
  65. P3 5:58Nurse: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting · EDM Shore, Kulak, Nurse, Foegele, Ryan

  66. P3 6:02Shot by Marner, saved by Skinner5v4
  67. P3 6:27Shot by Rielly, saved by Skinner5v4
  68. P3 6:38Shot by Tavares, saved by Skinner5v4
  69. P3 7:59Kane: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Gustafsson, Lafferty, Bunting · EDM Kane, Ekholm, Nurse, McDavid, Bouchard

  70. P3 7:59Kane: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Gustafsson, Lafferty, Bunting · EDM Kane, Ekholm, Nurse, McDavid, Bouchard

  71. P3 7:59Bunting: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Gustafsson, Lafferty, Bunting · EDM Kane, Ekholm, Nurse, McDavid, Bouchard

  72. P3 7:59Bunting: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Gustafsson, Lafferty, Bunting · EDM Kane, Ekholm, Nurse, McDavid, Bouchard

  73. P3 9:22Shot by McDavid, saved by Murray
  74. P3 9:37Shot by Acciari, saved by Skinner
  75. P3 9:37Foegele: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Gustafsson, Acciari, Aston-Reese, Kampf · EDM Ceci, Nurse, Foegele, McDavid, Yamamoto

  76. P3 10:30Shot by Tavares, saved by Skinner5v4
  77. P3 10:50Goal by Matthews (Tavares, Marner)5v4+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · EDM Ekholm, Bjugstad, Janmark, Desharnais

  78. P3 11:34Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Murray
  79. P3 11:37Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  80. P3 12:14Liljegren: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · EDM Kulak, Foegele, McDavid, Yamamoto, Bouchard

  81. P3 12:24Shot by Bouchard, saved by Murray4v5
  82. P3 12:31Goal by Draisaitl (Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid)4v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Holl, Marner, Kampf · EDM Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard

  83. P3 12:40Shot by Marner, saved by Skinner
  84. P3 13:56Shot by Acciari, saved by Skinner
  85. P3 15:52Marner: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, McCabe, Kerfoot, Marner, Kampf · EDM Ekholm, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Draisaitl

  86. P3 17:37Shot by Nugent-Hopkins, saved by Murray4v5
  87. P3 19:10Goal by Acciari, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Brodie, Tavares, Nylander, Acciari · EDM Ekholm, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard

  88. P3 0:00Period end
  89. P3 0:00Final