Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 14 | 28 | 010 | 322 |
| TBL | 17 | 114 | 014 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:15WPGNate SchmidtAssists: Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 1:01WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 9:04WPGMorgan BarronGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:01TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:34TBLRoss Colton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:04TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 11:09WPGKyle Connor: Holding2 min
- P2 14:20WPGMark Scheifele: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:18WPGKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Scheifele – Connor13:11
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers8:31
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron9:36
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Gustafsson5:24
xG 0.10–0.48 (16%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg13:36
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk16:21
xG 0.70–0.82 (46%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Stanley14:05
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel8:40
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Eyssimont5:23
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Colton – Eyssimont – Jeannot2:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul3:25
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev9:40
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak11:10
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev4:14
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).