Mon, Mar 13, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 117 | 39 | 429 |
| TOR | 012 | 23 | 113 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:11TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:13TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 14:58BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Owen Power · Bat, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 3:39BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 9:39BUFDylan CozensAssists: Riley Stillman, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 11:19BUFAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 18:58TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:12BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:10TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:07TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson12:42
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:24
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost7:15
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Greenway – Jost – Mittelstadt5:57
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Lyubushkin9:53
xG 0.79–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power17:45
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:30
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Bunting7:23
xG 0.76–0.10 (88%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews7:02
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews2:09
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Nylander – Lafferty3:45
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – McCabe8:57
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Gustafsson5:11
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Rielly – Gustafsson2:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).