Mon, Mar 13, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
15%
72%
TOR winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Skinner–Tuch–Thompson | Cozens–Quinn–Peterka | Okposo–Girgensons–Jost | Greenway–Jost–Mittelstadt | Okposo–Girgensons–Krebs | Greenway–Mittelstadt–Krebs | Greenway–Mittelstadt–Cozens | Jokiharju–Power | Bryson–Dahlin | Stillman–Lyubushkin | Jokiharju–Dahlin | Lyubushkin–Power | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acciari–Aston-Reese–Kampf | 3:340.15–0.39 | 0:370.00–0.01 | 2:160.05–0.00 | 2:190.00–0.02 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 5:180.04–0.05 | 1:440.11–0.00 | 2:060.05–0.28 | ||||
| Tavares–Nylander–Bunting | 2:260.15–0.10 | 1:240.01–0.00 | 1:150.17–0.00 | 0:520.25–0.00 | 0:530.12–0.00 | 2:020.14–0.00 | 2:120.52–0.00 | 1:340.05–0.00 | 0:550.06–0.00 | |||
| Kerfoot–Marner–Matthews | 2:400.02–0.04 | 1:300.05–0.00 | 0:540.11–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 3:560.13–0.00 | 2:040.11–0.00 | 0:510.02–0.04 | |||||
| Jarnkrok–Nylander–Lafferty | 0:590.00–0.05 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.02 | 1:500.00–0.08 | 1:070.00–0.12 | |||||||
| Nylander–Marner–Matthews | 0:590.00–0.05 | 1:160.00–0.09 | ||||||||||
| Jarnkrok–Lafferty–Bunting | 0:410.00–0.07 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.28 | |||||||||
| Tavares–Marner–Matthews | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Tavares–Nylander–Matthews | 1:040.00–0.11 | 0:420.00–0.11 | ||||||||||
| Tavares–Lafferty–Matthews | 0:530.01–0.00 | 0:540.01–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Holl–McCabe | 4:570.22–0.33 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 1:040.30–0.00 | 3:230.09–0.00 | 3:000.43–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.28 | 1:080.07–0.04 | ||||
| Brodie–Rielly | 2:450.00–0.11 | 1:590.05–0.00 | 1:080.04–0.01 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 2:210.00–0.04 | 1:350.00–0.00 | 1:440.08–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.09 | 0:560.00–0.12 | |||
| Giordano–Liljegren | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:550.02–0.35 | 1:000.01–0.00 | 1:450.00–0.02 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:450.00–0.02 | 1:040.14–0.00 | 2:250.01–0.35 | ||||
| Giordano–Gustafsson | 2:490.17–0.07 | 1:370.20–0.00 | 0:590.13–0.00 | 1:440.27–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Brodie–Holl | 0:470.00–0.08 | 0:450.02–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.11 | 1:300.02–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.04 | 0:420.00–0.11 | ||||||
| McCabe–Liljegren | 0:420.00–0.05 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:540.00–0.22 | 1:090.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Rielly–Liljegren | 1:520.00–0.01 | 0:520.00–0.02 | 1:010.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.02 | ||||||||
| Rielly–Gustafsson | 1:220.03–0.00 | 1:440.03–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Brodie–Gustafsson | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:190.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Gustafsson–Liljegren | 0:470.10–0.10 | 0:440.10–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Giordano–Holl | ||||||||||||
| McCabe–Gustafsson | 0:310.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Brodie–Liljegren | 1:020.00–0.03 | 0:370.00–0.03 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 30 | 27:00 | 0:54 | 1:35 | 4 | 3 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 30 | 26:31 | 0:53 | 1:39 | 6 | 4 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 23 | 23:20 | 1:01 | 2:52 | 5 | 0 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 23 | 22:30 | 0:59 | 2:54 | 5 | 2 |
 William NylanderTOR | 25 | 22:24 | 0:54 | 2:05 | 6 | 2 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 25 | 21:18 | 0:51 | 2:06 | 4 | 4 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 23 | 20:56 | 0:55 | 1:31 | 4 | 2 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 24 | 20:23 | 0:51 | 1:26 | 5 | 2 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 23 | 20:22 | 0:53 | 1:27 | 5 | 1 |
 John TavaresTOR | 19 | 19:40 | 1:02 | 3:57 | 7 | 1 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 20 | 18:34 | 0:56 | 2:13 | 6 | 0 |
 TJ BrodieTOR | 22 | 17:55 | 0:49 | 2:18 | 3 | 4 |
 Justin HollTOR | 20 | 17:19 | 0:52 | 2:09 | 2 | 5 |
 Michael BuntingTOR | 18 | 16:51 | 0:56 | 1:57 | 5 | 1 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 19 | 15:59 | 0:50 | 1:31 | 2 | 2 |
 Timothy LiljegrenTOR | 19 | 15:58 | 0:50 | 1:46 | 2 | 3 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 20 | 15:55 | 0:48 | 1:12 | 6 | 3 |
 Tyson JostBUF | 20 | 15:42 | 0:47 | 1:34 | 4 | 3 |
 Ilya LyubushkinBUF | 21 | 15:36 | 0:45 | 1:32 | 1 | 3 |
 Noel AcciariTOR | 20 | 15:19 | 0:46 | 1:33 | 1 | 2 |
 David KampfTOR | 17 | 15:16 | 0:54 | 1:27 | 1 | 4 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 17 | 14:45 | 0:52 | 1:24 | 5 | 3 |
 Erik GustafssonTOR | 19 | 14:33 | 0:46 | 1:20 | 4 | 0 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 18 | 14:00 | 0:47 | 1:15 | 4 | 3 |
 Mark GiordanoTOR | 19 | 13:54 | 0:44 | 1:17 | 1 | 2 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 17 | 13:50 | 0:49 | 1:22 | 4 | 3 |
 Sam LaffertyTOR | 18 | 12:59 | 0:43 | 1:18 | 0 | 4 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 16 | 12:56 | 0:49 | 1:20 | 4 | 3 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 19 | 12:50 | 0:41 | 1:10 | 3 | 2 |
 Riley StillmanBUF | 18 | 12:43 | 0:42 | 1:32 | 1 | 1 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 18 | 12:41 | 0:42 | 1:24 | 0 | 3 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 19 | 12:38 | 0:40 | 1:28 | 4 | 2 |
 Alexander KerfootTOR | 17 | 12:13 | 0:43 | 1:11 | 1 | 3 |
 Jacob BrysonBUF | 18 | 11:53 | 0:40 | 1:11 | 3 | 3 |
 Zachary Aston-ReeseTOR | 16 | 11:08 | 0:42 | 1:05 | 1 | 2 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 13 | 8:43 | 0:40 | 1:16 | 4 | 2 |