Wed, Mar 15, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 36 | 09 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 427 |
| WSH | 18 | 010 | 319 | 02 | 2 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43BUFIlya LyubushkinAssists: Peyton Krebs, Riley Stillman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:50BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 10:03WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P1 18:06BUFTyson JostUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 1:32WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alexander Alexeyev, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 5:22BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Peyton Krebs, Owen Power · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 10:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 18:52WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 3. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 4. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:46BUFRiley Stillman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:01WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P3 16:18WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:36BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min · PPG
- OT 4:03BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:38
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:17
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Greenway – Jost – Mittelstadt10:47
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson15:18
xG 0.85–1.20 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power17:04
xG 1.31–0.55 (70%)attempts 24–16goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:15
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power2:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Aube-Kubel – Protas12:18
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome3:59
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Mantha7:20
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Wilson2:28
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry15:11
xG 1.02–0.82 (55%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev10:14
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Alexeyev3:55
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).