Wed, Mar 15, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 010 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 229 |
| TOR | 17 | 04 | 07 | 00 | 0 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:08COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. COL Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:39TORMark Giordano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:40COLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:21COLEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:17TORMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:56TORTJ Brodie: Interference2 min
- P2 13:28COLEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P3 1:18TORMichael Bunting: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:31TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – Malgin8:41
xG 0.47–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor10:35
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Galchenyuk – Newhook2:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues10:08
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram8:57
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar11:45
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:53
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Acciari – Kampf2:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews11:19
xG 0.61–0.60 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews2:29
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Liljegren3:03
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Holl – McCabe11:03
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Liljegren2:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (2%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).