Thu, Mar 16, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 5, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 314 | 06 | 530 |
| OTT | 112 | 110 | 214 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 5:00COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 19:33OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:23COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 8:20OTTShane PintoAssists: Julien Gauthier, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 15:17COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 18:09COLLars EllerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 2:52OTTTravis HamonicAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–3
- P3 13:18OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:49OTTTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:44COLJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P1 9:01OTTRidly Greig: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:03COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P1 18:26COLAlex Newhook: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:45COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06COLBowen Byram: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:06OTTClaude Giroux: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:36OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:19COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues11:43
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor10:04
xG 0.66–0.36 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Nieto – Galchenyuk – Newhook3:55
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin10:36
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard3:08
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram12:02
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Johnson – Byram2:17
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Greig8:58
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Watson – Brown – Gambrell4:48
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brassard – Gauthier – Pinto5:26
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle12:58
xG 0.61–1.14 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chychrun10:28
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom13:01
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Chabot – Chychrun2:51
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).