Tue, Mar 21, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 09 | 110 | 227 |
| NYI | 010 | 39 | 410 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01TORSam LaffertyAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Bobby McMann · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:28NYIZach PariseAssists: Scott Mayfield, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 13:50NYIHudson FaschingUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:26NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:29TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 4:13NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 10:00NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Anders Lee · Poke, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 13:56NYINoah DobsonENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–6
- P3 16:46NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Cal Clutterbuck · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:35NYIAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:48TORSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:40NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:40TORNoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Bunting6:02
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews2:06
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner6:06
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nylander – Lafferty – McMann4:50
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren17:09
xG 1.33–0.85 (61%)attempts 27–10goals 1–2
- Giordano – Holl15:24
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Rielly – Gustafsson17:38
xG 0.81–1.16 (41%)attempts 21–19goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Holmstrom9:53
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Cizikas – Engvall4:07
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching7:38
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat2:42
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech14:40
xG 1.26–0.61 (67%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
- Dobson – Bolduc13:28
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:53
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).