Sat, Mar 25, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 016 | 218 | 110 | 344 |
| CAR | 216 | 05 | 37 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54CARBrent BurnsPPAssists: Martin Necas, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:52CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:41TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:41TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 8:13CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Poke, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:02TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 17:34CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:43CARTeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:40TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:29TORNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:59CARBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 1:04CARBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:15CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Marner – Matthews11:56
xG 1.34–0.29 (82%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Acciari – Kampf2:19
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Lafferty – Acciari5:34
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf3:35
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – McCabe14:53
xG 1.53–0.33 (82%)attempts 28–11goals 0–1
- Rielly – Liljegren5:32
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Schenn – Rielly8:33
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Puljujarvi – Drury5:51
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis9:27
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Teravainen4:21
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook7:35
xG 0.43–0.73 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield10:39
xG 0.18–0.40 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin17:14
xG 0.56–1.31 (30%)attempts 15–18goals 1–2
- Skjei – Pesce16:25
xG 0.49–1.25 (28%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).