Sun, Mar 26, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 110 | 114 | 334 |
| NSH | 012 | 04 | 29 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 1:02TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 12:37NSHCody GlassPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Tommy Novak · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 15:09TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 18:18NSHTyson BarrieAssists: Philip Tomasino · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:18NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:43TORJustin Holl: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:14NSHMark Jankowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:49TORWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:17NSHRasmus Asplund: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:12NSHPhilip Tomasino: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:22TORJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P3 12:27TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16NSHCal Foote: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Marner – Matthews10:29
xG 0.59–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander8:36
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Kampf6:08
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Bunting – Acciari7:02
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – McCabe16:51
xG 1.24–0.07 (94%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl12:49
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Schenn – Rielly10:13
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Glass – Tomasino – Afanasyev2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev5:13
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino6:30
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista10:51
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lauzon – Foote11:37
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro12:31
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Barrie – Gross13:33
xG 0.51–1.14 (31%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).