Mon, Mar 27, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 118 | 113 | 04 | 2 | 441 |
| BUF | 113 | 29 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22MTLJordan HarrisAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 3:49BUFLukas RousekAssists: Tyson Jost, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:28MTLAlex BelzileAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 5:49BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 8:31BUFRiley StillmanAssists: Victor Olofsson, Lukas Rousek · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:35MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, Jesse Ylonen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. BUF JJ Peterka stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. MTL Mike Matheson stopped
- 7. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 8. MTL Jesse Ylonen scored
- 9. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 10. MTL Johnathan Kovacevic stopped
- 11. BUF Dylan Cozens stopped
- 12. MTL Michael Pezzetta scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:23MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:38MTLJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:57MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:04BUFJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:47MTLMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:53BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard11:33
xG 1.32–0.29 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Evans – Ylonen10:03
xG 0.89–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Drouin – Gurianov – Dach11:23
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta5:11
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris13:36
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Savard – Matheson16:58
xG 1.27–0.81 (61%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Barron11:26
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs11:15
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Rousek8:01
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka10:27
xG 0.04–0.66 (6%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:19
xG 0.42–1.09 (28%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stillman – Bryson8:22
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Power19:00
xG 0.43–1.38 (24%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin18:36
xG 0.24–1.35 (15%)attempts 11–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).