Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 417 | 17 | 629 |
| PHI | 114 | 117 | 111 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:35PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Wade Allison · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:50BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:25BUFAlex TuchAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:40BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Tyson Jost, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 3:46BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 16:02BUFAlex TuchAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P2 16:24PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Joel Farabee, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 5:11PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 16:33BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.23 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 11:19PHINoah Cates: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:20PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P3 19:10PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:10PHIScott Laughton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:10BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt11:03
xG 0.71–0.48 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka6:57
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Olofsson – Greenway – Jost7:16
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin16:51
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Stillman – Lyubushkin12:44
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Konecny – Cates5:56
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee10:29
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Konecny – Allison – Cates3:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Konecny – Cates2:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim8:51
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Braun – Seeler5:32
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – York4:53
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).