Sun, Apr 2, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 310 | 07 | 27 | 524 |
| TOR | 115 | 013 | 117 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30DETOlli MaattaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:33TORCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Nick Abruzzese, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 12:45DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Robert Hagg, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 19:21DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 6:00TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 10:16DETDylan LarkinAssists: Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 17:48DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:33DETAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:56DETMarco Kasper: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P1 9:06TORWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:31DETLucas Raymond: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:11DETJake Walman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:11TORMichael Bunting: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:58TORMichael Bunting: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:53DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin10:49
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Luff – Veleno – Berggren9:12
xG 0.57–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Suter7:42
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Copp – Raymond – Kasper11:46
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Edvinsson16:42
xG 0.63–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider13:53
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hagg10:51
xG 0.73–1.31 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf9:25
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander7:23
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Jarnkrok – Bunting – Matthews7:02
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Zohorna2:20
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl13:25
xG 1.59–0.74 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Brodie – Rielly2:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Timmins – Liljegren11:53
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).