Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 18 | 14 | 424 |
| TBL | 114 | 119 | 115 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:59TBLAlex KillornAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:01TORLuke SchennAssists: Noel Acciari · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 5:21TBLNick PerbixAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:56TORCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 12:33TORRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 13:49TBLMikhail SergachevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (20)
- P1 0:11TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:32TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P1 10:24TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:50TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:50TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TORRyan O'Reilly: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:20TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:20TORMichael Bunting: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:08TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:38TORNoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P2 15:20TORMatthew Knies: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:02TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:31TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P3 7:11TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:03TORTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Nylander – Knies6:49
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Bunting7:50
xG 0.18–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Aston-Reese – Kampf2:18
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl8:46
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Schenn – McCabe6:17
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- McCabe – Liljegren2:41
xG 0.31–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel3:01
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli2:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul3:40
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Point – Eyssimont4:10
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev9:31
xG 0.97–0.15 (87%)attempts 23–3goals 2–1
- Hedman – Perbix12:46
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Cole – Cernak9:02
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).