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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:11Killorn: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Paul, Perbix · TOR Schenn, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Knies

  3. P1 0:32Rielly: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · TOR O'Reilly, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander

  4. P1 0:53Shot by Sergachev, saved by Woll4v4
  5. P1 1:31Shot by Stamkos, saved by Woll4v4
  6. P1 1:38Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  7. P1 2:30Shot by Sergachev, saved by Woll5v4
  8. P1 4:01Shot by Sergachev, saved by Woll
  9. P1 5:45Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Vasilevskiy
  10. P1 6:44Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 6:56Shot by Brodie, saved by Vasilevskiy
  12. P1 8:04Shot by Sergachev, saved by Woll
  13. P1 8:27Shot by Hagel, saved by Woll
  14. P1 8:31Shot by Raddysh, saved by Woll
  15. P1 8:57Shot by McCabe, saved by Vasilevskiy
  16. P1 10:24McCabe: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Colton, Eyssimont · TOR O'Reilly, McCabe, Nylander, Liljegren, Knies

  17. P1 11:08Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  18. P1 11:39Shot by Killorn, saved by Woll5v4
  19. P1 11:43Shot by Point, saved by Woll5v4
  20. P1 12:06Killorn: Cross checking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Sergachev · TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, Jarnkrok, Holl

  21. P1 12:48Goal by Nylander (O'Reilly, Jarnkrok)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · TOR O'Reilly, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander

  22. P1 13:20Shot by Liljegren, saved by Vasilevskiy
  23. P1 13:52Shot by Paul, saved by Woll
  24. P1 13:56Shot by Stamkos, saved by Woll
  25. P1 13:59Goal by Killorn (Sergachev, Stamkos)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Paul, Raddysh, Sergachev · TOR Schenn, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Bunting

  26. P1 15:06Shot by Kampf, saved by Vasilevskiy
  27. P1 15:07Shot by Knies, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P1 16:01Goal by Schenn (Acciari)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Paul, Raddysh, Sergachev · TOR Schenn, Rielly, Kerfoot, Acciari, Kampf

  29. P1 16:37Shot by Hedman, saved by Woll
  30. P1 17:52Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Vasilevskiy
  31. P1 18:50Maroon: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Perry, Maroon, Bellemare, Raddysh, Sergachev · TOR Schenn, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Aston-Reese

  32. P1 18:50Schenn: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Perry, Maroon, Bellemare, Raddysh, Sergachev · TOR Schenn, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Aston-Reese

  33. P1 18:50Maroon: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Perry, Maroon, Bellemare, Raddysh, Sergachev · TOR Schenn, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Aston-Reese

  34. P1 19:46Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  35. P1 0:00O'Reilly: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Cole, Bellemare, Sergachev · TOR O'Reilly, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander

  36. P1 0:00Period end4v4
  37. P2 0:00Period start
  38. P2 0:30Shot by Cirelli, saved by Woll4v4
  39. P2 1:14Shot by Stamkos, saved by Woll5v4
  40. P2 1:15Shot by Killorn, saved by Woll5v4
  41. P2 2:29Shot by Colton, saved by Woll
  42. P2 2:35Shot by Hedman, saved by Woll
  43. P2 2:36Shot by Paul, saved by Woll
  44. P2 3:55Shot by Timmins, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 4:20Perry: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Perry, Cole, Bellemare, Raddysh, Colton · TOR Rielly, McCabe, Kerfoot, Bunting, Kampf

  46. P2 4:20Bunting: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Perry, Cole, Bellemare, Raddysh, Colton · TOR Rielly, McCabe, Kerfoot, Bunting, Kampf

  47. P2 4:33Shot by Point, saved by Woll
  48. P2 4:45Shot by Point, saved by Woll
  49. P2 5:18Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll
  50. P2 5:21Goal by Perbix (Point, Kucherov)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Colton, Perbix · TOR Schenn, Rielly, Kerfoot, Aston-Reese, Kampf

  51. P2 5:50Shot by Hagel, saved by Woll
  52. P2 6:08Hagel: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Cirelli, Colton, Hagel, Perbix · TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Acciari, Liljegren

  53. P2 7:39Shot by Knies, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  54. P2 8:11Shot by Acciari, saved by Vasilevskiy
  55. P2 8:58Shot by Sergachev, saved by Woll
  56. P2 9:37Shot by Raddysh, saved by Woll
  57. P2 10:24Shot by Tavares, saved by Vasilevskiy
  58. P2 12:38Acciari: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Eyssimont, Perbix · TOR Schenn, McCabe, Acciari, Aston-Reese, Timmins

  59. P2 13:24Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  60. P2 14:11Shot by Colton, saved by Woll5v4
  61. P2 15:20Knies: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Cole, Bellemare, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Liljegren, Knies

  62. P2 15:26Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  63. P2 15:32Shot by Point, saved by Woll5v4
  64. P2 15:33Shot by Point, saved by Woll5v4
  65. P2 16:02Kucherov: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Sergachev · TOR Brodie, Holl, Kerfoot, Acciari

  66. P2 16:15Shot by Eyssimont, saved by Woll4v4
  67. P2 16:16Eyssimont: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Paul, Raddysh, Eyssimont · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Liljegren

  68. P2 16:54Shot by Tavares, saved by Vasilevskiy3v4
  69. P2 16:56Goal by Jarnkrok (Tavares, Nylander)3v4+23 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli · TOR O'Reilly, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Nylander

  70. P2 18:27Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P2 18:29Shot by Tavares, saved by Vasilevskiy
  72. P2 18:31Bunting: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Hedman, Bellemare, Cernak, Eyssimont · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Bunting, Liljegren

  73. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  74. P3 0:00Period start
  75. P3 1:15Shot by Hedman, saved by Woll
  76. P3 4:03Shot by Paul, saved by Woll
  77. P3 4:42Shot by Cole, saved by Woll
  78. P3 6:04Shot by Perbix, saved by Woll
  79. P3 7:11Paul: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Paul, Cernak, Sergachev, Colton, Hagel · TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Knies

  80. P3 7:11Rielly: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Paul, Cernak, Sergachev, Colton, Hagel · TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Knies

  81. P3 7:11Rielly: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Paul, Cernak, Sergachev, Colton, Hagel · TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, Rielly, Nylander, Knies

  82. P3 7:35Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  83. P3 7:39Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  84. P3 8:11Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  85. P3 8:40Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll5v4
  86. P3 9:20Shot by Hedman, saved by Woll
  87. P3 9:35Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy
  88. P3 12:33Shot by Knies, saved by Vasilevskiy
  89. P3 12:33Goal by O'Reilly (Knies, Nylander)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Eyssimont, Perbix · TOR Schenn, O'Reilly, McCabe, Nylander, Knies

  90. P3 13:49Goal by Sergachev, unassisted+12 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Raddysh, Cirelli, Sergachev · TOR Brodie, Holl, Bunting, Aston-Reese, Kampf

  91. P3 14:40Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll
  92. P3 15:05Shot by Point, saved by Woll
  93. P3 18:03Brodie: Cross checking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Perry, Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli · TOR Brodie, O'Reilly, McCabe, Acciari, Kampf

  94. P3 18:28Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll6v4
  95. P3 19:34Shot by Point, saved by Woll6v4
  96. P3 19:43Shot by Hedman, saved by Woll6v4
  97. P3 19:50Shot by Kucherov, saved by Woll6v4
  98. P3 0:00Period end6v4
  99. P3 0:00Final