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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Tavares–Jarnkrok–BuntingO'Reilly–Nylander–KniesKerfoot–Aston-Reese–KampfO'Reilly–Kerfoot–AcciariTavares–Nylander–BuntingKerfoot–Acciari–KniesBrodie–HollSchenn–McCabeRielly–LiljegrenSchenn–RiellyMcCabe–LiljegrenBrodie–Rielly
Paul–Colton–Hagel1:480.02–0.041:160.04–0.031:190.02–0.001:430.04–0.031:330.02–0.04
Kucherov–Point–Eyssimont0:480.21–0.001:020.23–0.000:510.00–0.001:170.23–0.460:440.21–0.00
Cirelli–Colton–Eyssimont3:240.01–0.102:150.00–0.231:180.01–0.00
Killorn–Stamkos–Paul2:250.23–0.020:490.00–0.020:430.00–0.001:090.23–0.050:400.00–0.00
Perry–Maroon–Bellemare0:400.00–0.070:400.00–0.07
Kucherov–Point–Hagel1:150.02–0.061:400.00–0.060:350.02–0.000:420.21–0.00
Killorn–Stamkos–Cirelli0:370.00–0.000:440.03–0.000:510.03–0.000:370.00–0.00
Cirelli–Colton–Hagel0:330.02–0.000:380.00–0.03
Stamkos–Kucherov–Point
Perry–Bellemare–Colton
Hedman–Perbix2:420.00–0.083:260.25–0.520:390.08–0.070:320.00–0.060:420.03–0.001:220.02–0.003:100.07–0.541:000.00–0.001:420.08–0.001:500.20–0.07
Raddysh–Sergachev1:010.24–0.000:540.01–0.001:060.21–0.101:220.23–0.003:360.07–0.101:560.24–0.001:180.44–0.050:440.21–0.00
Cole–Cernak2:020.00–0.042:190.00–0.141:570.00–0.282:320.02–0.040:370.00–0.00
Hedman–Raddysh0:470.00–0.060:510.00–0.06
Cole–Perbix0:380.00–0.00
Hedman–Cernak
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndKillorn FPaul FStamkos FHagel FCirelli FPoint FKucherov FMaroon FBellemare FPerry FEyssimont FColton FPerbix DHedman DCole DCernak DRaddysh DSergachev DVasilevskiy GKnies FNylander FO'Reilly FJarnkrok FTavares FKampf FKerfoot FAcciari FAston-Reese FBunting FSchenn DRielly DMcCabe DLiljegren DHoll DBrodie DTimmins DWoll G
TBLTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Victor HedmanTBL2623:180:543:0122
Mikhail SergachevTBL2722:580:511:5391
TJ BrodieTOR2422:580:572:0607
Brayden PointTBL2022:561:093:0181
Steven StamkosTBL2322:470:593:0191
Justin HollTOR2221:551:001:5706
Nikita KucherovTBL1921:011:063:0181
Ryan O'ReillyTOR2620:210:471:2925
Calle JarnkrokTOR2720:170:452:0367
Jake McCabeTOR2620:100:473:1622
Anthony CirelliTBL2718:400:413:0165
John TavaresTOR2218:190:502:0261
William NylanderTOR2218:060:491:3322
Morgan RiellyTOR2217:440:481:2330
Alex KillornTBL2517:390:421:3542
Alexander KerfootTOR2416:500:421:0914
Brandon HagelTBL2216:180:441:1503
Timothy LiljegrenTOR2316:070:421:2342
Ian ColeTBL2115:520:451:3406
David KampfTOR2515:450:381:2315
Erik CernakTBL2215:340:421:1306
Nick PerbixTBL2215:240:421:1521
Luke SchennTOR2015:140:461:2811
Nick PaulTBL1914:370:461:1533
Michael BuntingTOR1814:300:481:3531
Noel AcciariTOR2214:240:391:0506
Darren RaddyshTBL1914:200:452:1022
Ross ColtonTBL1914:000:441:0511
Matthew KniesTOR1812:130:411:1810
Corey PerryTBL1612:050:453:0111
Michael EyssimontTBL1511:080:451:1523
Pierre-Edouard BellemareTBL1610:570:411:1303
Zachary Aston-ReeseTOR1710:460:381:1613
Conor TimminsTOR148:290:360:5400
Patrick MaroonTBL63:510:390:5301