Sun, Oct 15, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 210 | 011 | 224 |
| OTT | 117 | 215 | 26 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ridly Greig, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:00TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Darren Raddysh, Tanner Jeannot · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:48OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:00TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 19:01OTTMathieu JosephGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:53OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:17OTTTim StützleENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Joonas Korpisalo · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:23OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:23TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:33OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:37OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P3 4:53TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00TBLTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot11:53
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Watson – Glendening – Merela7:18
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Barré-Boulet7:29
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel11:16
xG 0.37–0.67 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix13:15
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- de Haan – Cernak11:28
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Sergachev16:20
xG 0.47–0.81 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:33
xG 0.91–0.40 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Joseph – Greig11:39
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- MacEwen – Kastelic – Kelly5:07
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Batherson7:43
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:05
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Chabot – Chychrun17:42
xG 0.45–0.63 (41%)attempts 16–17goals 2–2
- Hamonic – Brannstrom12:36
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).