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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 15, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

OTT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Cirelli–Eyssimont–JeannotKucherov–Point–HagelPaul–Sheary–Barré-BouletWatson–Glendening–MerelaKucherov–Paul–ShearyRaddysh–SergachevHedman–Perbixde Haan–CernakHedman–RaddyshHedman–Cernak
Tarasenko–Joseph–Greig4:360.08–0.070:440.00–0.093:340.30–0.011:160.00–0.006:160.07–0.152:240.21–0.012:020.11–0.01
Giroux–Tkachuk–Stützle1:070.00–0.016:270.53–0.240:370.00–0.004:150.65–0.205:110.06–0.050:510.00–0.000:460.07–0.09
Kubalik–Chartier–Batherson3:190.08–0.310:470.07–0.002:000.01–0.001:060.00–0.001:520.07–0.314:100.08–0.04
MacEwen–Kastelic–Kelly0:460.01–0.002:110.01–0.101:190.02–0.011:350.02–0.101:220.01–0.041:470.01–0.00
Batherson–Tkachuk–Stützle0:530.00–0.010:390.00–0.000:350.00–0.00
Giroux–Kubalik–Stützle0:440.00–0.000:370.00–0.00
Chabot–Chychrun7:030.14–0.362:040.07–0.103:080.21–0.103:090.00–0.010:440.00–0.008:330.07–0.283:080.19–0.203:380.19–0.000:350.00–0.00
Sanderson–Zub1:440.01–0.017:380.56–0.243:330.69–0.195:530.06–0.051:510.01–0.010:500.07–0.09
Hamonic–Brannstrom2:140.01–0.300:410.00–0.003:430.09–0.013:540.03–0.003:120.02–0.003:090.09–0.324:550.02–0.04
Chabot–Brannstrom0:370.00–0.000:340.00–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndJoseph FGreig FTarasenko FTkachuk FStützle FGiroux FKubalik FBatherson FChartier FKastelic FMacEwen FKelly FHamonic DBrannstrom DZub DSanderson DChabot DChychrun DKorpisalo GGlendening FMerela FWatson FPaul FPoint FKucherov FHagel FEyssimont FCirelli FJeannot FSheary FBarré-Boulet FRaddysh DSergachev DHedman DPerbix Dde Haan DCernak DTomkins G
OTTTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Thomas ChabotOTT3024:460:502:0062
Mikhail SergachevTBL2823:170:501:3622
Victor HedmanTBL2722:080:491:4433
Tim StützleOTT2822:020:472:2453
Jakob ChychrunOTT2722:010:492:0651
Darren RaddyshTBL2821:400:461:2211
Anthony CirelliTBL2521:200:512:1925
Nikita KucherovTBL2320:420:541:4532
Brandon HagelTBL2820:100:431:2354
Claude GirouxOTT3019:570:401:3467
Brayden PointTBL2219:340:531:3232
Jake SandersonOTT2919:250:401:1636
Artem ZubOTT2819:220:421:1734
Brady TkachukOTT2818:360:401:3274
Mathieu JosephOTT2717:380:391:1142
Ridly GreigOTT2617:380:411:0841
Erik CernakTBL2117:280:501:3014
Erik BrannstromOTT2416:460:421:3222
Tanner JeannotTBL2016:400:501:1012
Calvin de HaanTBL1916:040:511:2201
Travis HamonicOTT2315:520:411:0922
Nick PerbixTBL2315:520:411:4613
Vladimir TarasenkoOTT2615:490:371:0742
Drake BathersonOTT2115:310:441:3422
Michael EyssimontTBL1713:570:491:0202
Dominik KubalikOTT1712:330:441:1932
Nick PaulTBL1612:270:471:1121
Luke GlendeningTBL1912:260:391:0544
Rourke ChartierOTT2212:180:340:5443
Conor ShearyTBL1411:380:501:0910
Parker KellyOTT2011:290:341:0012
Waltteri MerelaTBL1611:190:420:5822
Alex Barré-BouletTBL1610:490:411:0510
Austin WatsonTBL138:010:370:4932
Zack MacEwenOTT116:320:361:1411
Mark KastelicOTT106:110:371:1420