Thu, Oct 19, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 011 | 213 | 436 |
| BUF | 27 | 07 | 113 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:06BUFErik JohnsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:15CGYWalker DuehrAssists: A.J. Greer, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 14:28BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:52CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Matt Coronato, Dennis Gilbert · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:14BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 4:35CGYAdam RuzickaGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:28BUFTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:47CGYWalker Duehr: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:36CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:01BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:28CGYDillon Dube: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:27BUFConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:35BUFConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:33CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:33BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:33CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:53BUFJJ Peterka: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Sharangovich – Duehr7:24
xG 0.85–0.64 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato8:25
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane7:55
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kadri – Dube – Ruzicka7:15
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Gilbert10:27
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:31
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Weegar – Zadorov12:49
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Cozens – Peterka7:20
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost7:21
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson6:51
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 2–12goals 0–3
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:54
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power9:06
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Clifton – Dahlin2:18
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power4:13
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).