Sun, Oct 22, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 210 | 012 | 231 |
| DET | 214 | 28 | 28 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Justin Holl, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:44DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:00DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 12:12CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 13:33DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 18:34CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Walker Duehr, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 3:07DETJake WalmanAssists: Daniel Sprong, David Perron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 3:44DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond, Justin Holl · Slap, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:23CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:43CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28DETOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:12DETJames Reimer: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:40CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:48CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:18CGYA.J. Greer: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:40
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Ruzicka – Sharangovich2:39
xG 0.05–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Ruzicka – Coronato10:44
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr6:49
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov16:19
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 21–9goals 1–2
- Oesterle – Gilbert11:03
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:38
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond11:48
xG 1.17–0.78 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 4–0
- Copp – Compher – Rasmussen9:34
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Fischer – Czarnik – Berggren9:15
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Sprong – Veleno8:18
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Holl13:26
xG 1.08–0.49 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 5–0
- Walman – Seider13:31
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Maatta – Gostisbehere18:09
xG 0.59–1.08 (35%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).