Tue, Oct 24, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 310 | 16 | 624 |
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 319 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:20BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Connor Clifton, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 4:04BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 13:14OTTJakob ChychrunAssists: Travis Hamonic, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 17:08BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 18:48BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 15:35OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Thomas Chabot, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 18:38OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 18:58OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 19:37BUFTage ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG6–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 16:36OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 19:03BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:27BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:50OTTTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Instigator2 min
- P3 16:50BUFAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:23BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:23OTTVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23OTTVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:23BUFDylan Cozens: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:24BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:58OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Thompson – Cozens7:01
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Olofsson8:26
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:41
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Krebs – Peterka – Benson6:16
xG 0.01–0.25 (3%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power13:50
xG 0.99–0.71 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Clifton – Power2:15
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Clifton12:36
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle13:55
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Chartier – Kastelic – Kelly4:36
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Kelly3:19
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Norris – Batherson5:10
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Sanderson16:49
xG 1.31–0.41 (76%)attempts 28–8goals 2–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker13:32
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Chychrun12:41
xG 0.63–0.69 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).