Thu, Oct 26, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 110 | 26 | 424 |
| DAL | 05 | 116 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 11:17DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 18:07TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 5:08TORTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Matthew Knies · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 19:49TORJohn TavaresENUnassisted · Snap, 0.47 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:58TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:38DALWyatt Johnston: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:28DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P3 4:01DALJani Hakanpää: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 8:55TORJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:24
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Domi – Kampf – Knies6:08
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Holmberg4:20
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews8:37
xG 0.33–0.83 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly5:59
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie2:20
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Liljegren6:13
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Marchment – Dellandrea3:53
xG 0.42–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:54
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Marchment3:20
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston2:48
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen15:26
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist8:43
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).