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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 26, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.

DAL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:49Shot by Reaves, saved by Wedgewood
  3. P1 4:14Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Wedgewood
  4. P1 5:32Shot by Harley, saved by Woll
  5. P1 5:59Shot by Gregor, saved by Wedgewood
  6. P1 7:38Shot by Robertson, saved by Woll
  7. P1 7:56Shot by Hintz, saved by Woll
  8. P1 7:58Marner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Hakanpää, Hintz, Robertson, Harley · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  9. P1 8:02Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Wedgewood5v4
  10. P1 8:26Shot by Pavelski, saved by Woll5v4
  11. P1 9:38Johnston: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DAL Duchene, Seguin, Marchment, Lundkvist, Johnston · TOR Matthews, Gregor, Liljegren, Knies

  12. P1 9:49Goal by Rielly (Nylander)4v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Lindell, Hintz, Heiskanen · TOR Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Liljegren

  13. P1 12:38Shot by Klingberg, saved by Wedgewood
  14. P1 13:59Shot by Knies, saved by Wedgewood
  15. P1 18:03Shot by Klingberg, saved by Wedgewood
  16. P1 19:26Shot by Smith, saved by Woll
  17. P1 0:00Period end
  18. P2 0:00Period start
  19. P2 0:19Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll
  20. P2 1:23Shot by Johnston, saved by Woll
  21. P2 1:59Shot by Robertson, saved by Woll
  22. P2 2:14Shot by Lundkvist, saved by Woll
  23. P2 2:20Shot by Duchene, saved by Woll
  24. P2 2:31Shot by Dadonov, saved by Woll
  25. P2 3:28Hintz: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Hakanpää, Faksa, Marchment, Harley · TOR Klingberg, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Matthews, Holmberg

  26. P2 3:46Shot by Lindell, saved by Woll4v5
  27. P2 4:36Shot by Matthews, saved by Wedgewood4v5
  28. P2 4:49Shot by Tavares, saved by Wedgewood4v5
  29. P2 5:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Wedgewood4v5
  30. P2 5:05Shot by Nylander, saved by Wedgewood4v5
  31. P2 7:04Shot by Duchene, saved by Woll
  32. P2 7:05Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll
  33. P2 7:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Wedgewood
  34. P2 11:17Goal by Marchment (Duchene, Suter)+21 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Duchene, Marchment, Heiskanen, Dellandrea, Lundkvist · TOR Giordano, Reaves, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  35. P2 12:16Shot by Benn, saved by Woll
  36. P2 12:28Shot by Nylander, saved by Wedgewood
  37. P2 12:42Shot by Nylander, saved by Wedgewood
  38. P2 13:15Shot by Gregor, saved by Wedgewood
  39. P2 13:58Shot by Suter, saved by Woll
  40. P2 14:30Shot by Seguin, saved by Woll
  41. P2 15:16Shot by Tavares, saved by Wedgewood
  42. P2 16:44Shot by Heiskanen, saved by Woll
  43. P2 17:44Shot by Smith, saved by Woll
  44. P2 18:07Goal by Marner (Matthews, Jarnkrok)+24 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Dadonov, Duchene, Seguin, Hakanpää, Harley · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Marner, Matthews

  45. P2 19:48Shot by Pavelski, saved by Woll
  46. P2 0:00Period end
  47. P3 0:00Period start
  48. P3 1:03Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll
  49. P3 1:12Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll
  50. P3 1:53Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll
  51. P3 2:47Shot by Smith, saved by Woll
  52. P3 4:01Hakanpää: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Hakanpää, Faksa, Robertson, Harley · TOR Reaves, Rielly, Gregor, Liljegren, Kampf

  53. P3 5:08Goal by Bertuzzi (Rielly, Knies)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Suter, Benn, Lindell, Johnston · TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Matthews, Knies

  54. P3 5:47Shot by Hintz, saved by Woll4v5
  55. P3 7:53Shot by Domi, saved by Wedgewood
  56. P3 7:58Shot by Giordano, saved by Wedgewood
  57. P3 8:55Klingberg: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DAL Dadonov, Duchene, Dellandrea, Lundkvist, Harley · TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Klingberg, Marner, Liljegren

  58. P3 9:23Shot by Robertson, saved by Woll5v4
  59. P3 12:21Shot by Hintz, saved by Woll
  60. P3 13:46Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Wedgewood
  61. P3 14:48Shot by Matthews, saved by Wedgewood
  62. P3 16:16Shot by Benn, saved by Woll6v5
  63. P3 16:17Shot by Robertson, saved by Woll6v5
  64. P3 18:23Shot by Hintz, saved by Woll6v5
  65. P3 19:34Shot by Marchment, saved by Woll6v5
  66. P3 19:49Goal by Tavares, unassisted6v50 pts WP

    On ice: DAL Pavelski, Benn, Duchene, Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen · TOR Giordano, Brodie, Tavares, Nylander, Gregor

  67. P3 0:00Period end
  68. P3 0:00Final