Sat, Oct 28, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 110 | 29 | 526 |
| PIT | 023 | 19 | 111 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24OTTRidly GreigPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:14OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 5:28OTTDominik KubalikGWGAssists: Ridly Greig, Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 17:34PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 13:07OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 13:38OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 19:26PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:42PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:38OTTJosh Norris: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:29OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:39PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:07PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Joseph – Greig12:09
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:47
xG 1.08–0.90 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Chartier – Kastelic – Kelly6:16
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Norris – Batherson11:27
xG 0.11–1.17 (8%)attempts 5–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo7:02
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker20:06
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 12–25goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson17:49
xG 0.74–1.87 (28%)attempts 12–30goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:31
xG 1.56–0.76 (67%)attempts 27–8goals 2–2
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari7:35
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell11:16
xG 0.34–0.40 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna8:23
xG 0.46–1.04 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves10:31
xG 1.04–0.35 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Graves – Pettersson2:05
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Shea2:54
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).