Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 116 | 316 | 26 | 638 |
| OTT | 17 | 09 | 312 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:05TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:32TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:57TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:15TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Poke, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 1:17OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tim Stützle, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 9:38TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 11:08OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 11:24TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Barré-Boulet, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
- P3 12:14OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:36TBLAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:36OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:30TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:45OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:55TBLTanner Jeannot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:36OTTDrake Batherson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:14OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:55TBLTanner Jeannot: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Paul – Sheary11:01
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:19
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 3–1
- Watson – Glendening – Jeannot5:33
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Point – Hagel – Eyssimont2:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak13:58
xG 1.26–0.35 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev13:48
xG 1.15–0.47 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Bogosian – de Haan7:59
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk5:16
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle2:34
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Jarventie3:15
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Jarventie2:17
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Sanderson3:06
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo6:23
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson13:54
xG 0.23–0.86 (21%)attempts 5–23goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).