Fri, Nov 24, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 01 | 36 | 57 | 814 |
| CAR | 18 | 112 | 04 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:12CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jack Drury, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:34TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:40TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Michael Eyssimont · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:54TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.38 xG3–1
- P2 14:45CARMichael BuntingPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 5:33TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 6:53TBLLuke GlendeningUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 10:41TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nick Perbix, Cole Koepke · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 16:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.11 xG7–2
- P3 18:08TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG8–2
Penalties (15)
- P2 0:31CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:48CARMichael Bunting: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:41TBLNick Paul: Interference2 min
- P2 14:42TBLAustin Watson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45TBLAustin Watson: Abuse of officials10 min
- P2 17:27TBLTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:55TBLNick Perbix: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:12TBLTanner Jeannot: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:17CARDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:30TBLAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30TBLAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:30CARMichael Bunting: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30TBLAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Jarvis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel10:36
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Jeannot3:37
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Eyssimont8:05
xG 0.16–0.19 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Motte – Paul – Jeannot4:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (1%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sergachev – Perbix2:12
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix12:16
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh2:13
xG 0.00–0.09 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Bunting – Drury8:35
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:36
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:46
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov8:51
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield16:32
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin12:21
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce14:08
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).